Surveillance

Global Signal Desk

Daily, source-verified public health signals. Not clinical or travel advice.

1Critical
1High
3Significant
2Watch
Last verified September 18, 20267 active signals · all high confidence

Active signals

CriticalHigh confidence

Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with cross-border spread to Uganda

Bundibugyo Ebola virus disease is spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with cross-border spread to Uganda.

global
Geography
Democratic Republic of the Congo · cross-border spread to Uganda
First seen
May 17, 2026
Last checked
September 18, 2026

What changed

WHO classifies this as an active, ongoing outbreak and the DRC's 17th Ebola outbreak; a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) was declared May 17, 2026. WHO situation-report data through September 13, 2026 report 7,258 confirmed cases and 3,510 deaths.

Why it matters

There is no licensed vaccine or approved therapeutic specifically for Bundibugyo virus. The response relies on public-health measures and supportive care, and cross-border spread to Uganda widens the population at risk.

HighHigh confidence

Nepal flash floods and health-system disruption

Severe flash floods on August 26, 2026 affected six districts and disrupted Nepal's health system.

earth
Geography
Nepal · six districts, 15 crisis-affected municipalities
First seen
August 26, 2026
Last checked
September 18, 2026

What changed

September 17, 2026: upgraded from Moderate to High. Severe August 26, 2026 floods affected six districts, and Nepal declared 15 municipalities disaster crisis-affected. Displacement, WASH damage, access disruption, and surveillance needs remain material.

Why it matters

WHO reports roughly 10,000 households needing immediate relief, three health posts fully damaged, one hospital partially damaged, and access to two hospitals affected — disrupting care exactly when needs rise.

SignificantHigh confidence

Increased U.S. animal-rabies exposures

U.S. animal-rabies exposures and post-exposure prophylaxis use rose over summer 2026.

animal
Geography
United States · eight or more states
First seen
July 1, 2026
Last checked
September 18, 2026

What changed

CDC reported 17% more rabies-related inquiries in July–August 2026 than in the same period of 2025; at least eight state health departments reported increased use of, or administration errors in, post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP).

Why it matters

Rabies is almost always fatal once symptoms begin but remains preventable with timely, correctly administered PEP. The reported administration errors point to a need for clinician and public awareness.

SignificantHigh confidence

Frozen organic berry recall (United States)

A frozen organic berry product sold in the U.S. was recalled over possible E. coli contamination.

food
Geography
United States · nationwide retail
First seen
September 16, 2026
Last checked
September 18, 2026

What changed

Great Value Organic Triple Berry Blend (10 oz; lot 6040 01-6; best by February 9, 2028; UPC 7874211226) was recalled for possible Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC O145).

Why it matters

STEC O145 can cause serious illness. The FDA notice said no illnesses were linked to this specific product at the time of posting, so this is a precautionary recall — check freezers for the affected lot and discard or return it.

SignificantHigh confidence

Chikungunya outbreak in northwest Costa Rica

Chikungunya transmission is elevated in northwest Costa Rica in 2026.

global
Geography
Northwest Costa Rica · San José, Puntarenas, Guanacaste, Alajuela, Heredia
First seen
August 10, 2026
Last checked
September 18, 2026

What changed

CDC lists northwest Costa Rica among current outbreak areas and recommends vaccination for travelers visiting an outbreak area. An ECDC assessment dated August 10, 2026 reported 82 cases in 2026 versus eight in 2025.

Why it matters

Chikungunya is mosquito-borne and can cause severe, sometimes long-lasting joint pain. Travelers to the affected region should review current CDC guidance before and during travel.

WatchHigh confidence

U.S. 2026 cyclosporiasis season

The 2026 U.S. cyclosporiasis season is large but easing; a linked lettuce outbreak has ended.

food
Geography
United States · 49 states and D.C.
First seen
May 1, 2026
Last checked
September 18, 2026

What changed

September 17, 2026: downgraded from Significant to Watch as recent infections declined. CDC reports 19,883 laboratory-confirmed domestically acquired cases with onset May 1–August 31, 2026, 1,064 hospitalizations, and two deaths across 49 states and D.C. The linked Taylor Farms iceberg-lettuce outbreak ended September 11, 2026: 12,883 cases, 570 hospitalizations, and two deaths across 21 states.

Why it matters

The wider 2026 season total and the ended Taylor Farms lettuce cluster are different datasets and should not be added together. CDC says there is no continuing risk from the lettuce source; the broader season, and separate cluster investigations, are why this stays on watch.

WatchHigh confidence

Strengthening El Niño

NOAA reports a strengthening El Niño heading into fall and winter 2026–27.

earth
Geography
Global · Northern Hemisphere, fall–winter 2026–27
First seen
September 10, 2026
Last checked
September 18, 2026

What changed

September 18, 2026: desk language updated from outlook to active advisory. NOAA's September 10, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion says El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27.

Why it matters

El Niño shifts the odds of extreme heat, flooding, drought, and vector-borne disease, but public-health consequences vary by region and depend on local hazards and vulnerability. Impacts are more likely, not guaranteed — so this is a watch, not a prediction.

Recent changes

Every promotion, demotion, and removal is logged here so the desk stays accountable — including signals we took down.

  1. All records reverified against primary and authoritative sources. El Niño language updated from outlook to active advisory.

  2. Nepal flash floods raised from Moderate to High.

  3. U.S. cyclosporiasis lowered from Significant to Watch.

  4. Philippines flood-associated leptospirosis removed pending authoritative evidence; it is not shown as an active signal.

  5. Baseline desk created.

Methodology

How the desk decides what to show

The Global Signal Desk is deliberately transparent about its limits. Here is how signals are sourced, rated, reconciled, corrected, and — when the evidence isn't there — left off.

Source hierarchy

We log a signal only when it is backed by a current, specific primary or authoritative source — WHO, CDC, ECDC, FDA, NOAA, and national ministries of health first. Secondary reporting can point us to a signal, but never stands in for the authoritative record.

Severity vs. confidence

Severity is our editorial read of potential public-health impact (Critical, High, Significant, Watch). Confidence is how well-established the underlying facts are. They move independently: a strengthening El Niño can be high-confidence but only a Watch.

Daily deduplication

Each day we reconcile records against their sources so one event is one signal. Related datasets are kept distinct — for example, a broad seasonal total and a single ended cluster are reported separately, not summed.

Corrections & removals

When the evidence changes, we change the record and log it in Recent changes below. Signals that no longer meet our sourcing bar are removed and noted, not quietly deleted.

Absence is not safety

This desk is intentionally small and selective. A hazard not listed here is not necessarily low-risk — absence from the desk does not mean absence of risk. This is situational awareness, not clinical or travel advice.